7 February 2011

Media Pundits: Enjoy Experts with Care

The proliferation of news outlets that operate 24 hours a day has led to the need to fill the airspace with constant comment on all markets. Investors should be careful not to confuse the permanent noise on the airwaves and the internet with advice. By all means, enjoy the entertainment and sometimes you may also find a new and useful insight that you can incorporate into your investment analysis. But be aware that the track record of most 'experts' is often less than transparent. Who really knows how the recommendations of the past have performed? Who is being warned when the expert changes his view or adjusts his own personal positions? Nouriel Roubini, Jim Cramer or Mark Faber may talk a good talk but it is not easy - or possible at all - to monitor their track record and when they change their view you may be the last person to hear about it.