Do you rely on 'models' to predict market moves?

You should if you think that a model that is able to explain 36% of price moves is a useful tool. I for my part would be sceptical. Remember, investing is part science, part art otherwise we would all be millionaires (or billionaires to bring this up-to-date). As the author of this particular model was a long-serving staffer at the Value Line Investment Service let me mention that I think that publication is the best value product in the market for investment services. Not perfect but for the price it beats all expensive 'research' departments that are housed in Brokerage and Fund Management firms.

Financial TV news - treat with caution

While I admit that I enjoy quite a few financial news programs on TV I would like to add a word of caution - especially for those investors that do not have the time to make financial analysis and research their main focus during an otherwise busy worklife.

Do Earnings forecasts matter?

An interesting couple of charts on Ed Yardeni's blog illustrates the near-permanent bias towards overestimating the future earnings growth of S&P 500 companies. Especially at the beginning of each year estimates are over-optimistic and they are reduced during the course of the year.

Should you listen to Investment Research

The fate of a brave and insightful bank analyst who correctly predicted the problems of the Irish banking industry should be a warning sign for any investor who puts his faith into 'sell side' research. While most analysts are diligent and honest investors should never forget that reports published by stockbrokers are sales documents first, objective analysis second.