29 March 2011

Leave Derivative Esoterics to the Specialists

An article in a Swiss financial newspaper that is also widely read by more or less sophisticated private investors recently carried an article explaining how to use the 'Barrier Hit Probability' when evaluating a certain type of structured derivative product (often known as Warrant or 'Certificate'). We advise all but the most enterprising investors not only to not burden themselves with the details of such products but to stay away from any investment in them (or advisers that try to put their money into such products). Not even the experts agree on how to value these products and the underlying assumptions are so difficult to predict that the results are only giving a false sense of security.