Beware of Economic Forecasts

When a leading investment manager states that there is a '60% Chance of Recession in the next 3-5 Years' the firm unwittingly confirms that predicting the economy is nearly worthless as a tool to base your investment decisions on. Nebulous forecasts such as these should be considered to be advertising for the fund manager and a way to get attention in the financial media circus hungry for the next eye-catching headline.